For over a century, the United States has the largest economy in the world. Major shifts have taken place but in the last two decades. Over the past 30 years, the weight of the world economy has shifted from the U.S. and the rich countries from Europe to China and India.
Recently, economists have unanimously proclaimed the emergence of all shades of India and China as economic superpowers in the not too distant future. The World Bank says India will become the thirdlargest economy after China and the United States by 2025th
World Bank Managing Director Graeme Wheeler, was recently found in India, India tremendous progress in recent years and stressed the need for maintaining the growth in high-value sectors, together with steps in the health and education sectors.
Clyde Prestowitz in his book "Three Billion New Capitalists? The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East: writes," that is until 2030, overtaking India Japan dollars in absolute termsPPP does not, and in the second half of this century will be the largest economy. The really long-term miracle in India comes about because of demographics. China's one-child policy will ultimately be reduced in one, and aging, employees perform. "
According to Wikipedia, which is currently India's economic growth (such as the World-second fastest growing large economy), its position on the political stage in the world to improve, though it is still a developing country, but athat will show a strong development. Many nations are moving to forge better relations with India. "
The last annual CIA report says the economy in India is the world's fourth-largest in terms of real GDP (PPP) after the United States, the People's Republic of China and Japan, and the second fastest growing large economies in the world, on average, at a annual growth rate of over 8%. The record growth in third quarter of 2003, when it was more than any other emergingto 10.4%.
Interestingly, the IMF estimates that by 2007 India's third largest economy in the world, overtaking the Japanese economy. The growth rate is likely to increase the impact rate, about 8% in relation to GDP (PPP).
The annual report by the Asian Development Bank 2003-2004 has mentioned that Primary Sector wise India is growing at 8% per year is the world's second largest producer of food to China. Food accounts for 69.4 billion USD in gross income. Secondary Sectoras India is still a relatively small player in the production compared to many world leaders. Some new trends suggest an improvement in the future. Tertiary and Quaternary Sector wise India currently has a growing IT industry as one of the best in the world. Some have begun to describe India as a technology superpower.
A recent report by the Foreign Office of the United States of America has concluded that the rich countries of Europe have seen the largest declinein global GDP share by 4.9 percentage points, from the U.S. and Japan with a decline of around 1 percentage point each followed. The report further says Within Asia the declining global share of Japan together since 1990, more than by the rising share of China and India. Between 1975 and 2002, Japan's share of world GDP by 1 percentage point, while the increase of South Korea, ASEAN, India and China by 1 percentage point to 1.2 points, 2.2 percentage points and 9.2 percentage pointsPoints, respectively.
Since the U.S. share in world GDP falls (from 21 percent to 18 percent), and in India (up from 6 percent to 11 percent in 2025) This is India's third largest economy by 2025. By 2025, the Indian economy is projected to be about 60 percent of the size of the U.S. economy. This transformation into a tri-polar economy will be completely until 2035, only slightly smaller with the Indian economy as the U.S. economy but larger than in Western Europe.
VariousReports of the FBI, said that if things go well in India, it could overtake China by mid-century and could be the largest economy in the world caused by it. The way the Indian economy will not see this possibility unlikely.
To be in that one glance, the answer lies in the book by Prestowitz where he says the big story between now and 2025 will be China, but after that it is India. "Indian demographics are pretty strong. Half of the Indian population isunder the age of 20. Whereas China will age rapidly in another 10-15 years, India doesn't age very much at all. India will surpass China in population somewhere around 2030, so in the latter half of the century India is likely to be the biggest economy. I know there's still something of a socialist hangover in India but it's very much a capitalist economy, one which is driven by entrepreneurs rather than government fiat, which is still very much the case in China."
Perhaps that distant Dream of regaining their past glory as the number one in terms of knowledge and economic power are so far true. Only time will predict this.
Dr. Suvrokamal Dutta
(The author is a renowned Foreign Affairs and Economic Expert)
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