Top Countries Receiving Remittance Money

Remittances are transfers of money by foreign workers to their home countries. Money sent home by migrants constitutes the second largest financial inflow to many developing countries, exceeding international aid.

Remittances contribute to economic growth and to the financial and social inclusion of needy people worldwide. Recent studies have shown that remittances not only play an important part in many people's daily lives but are particularly important for people during financial crises.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, remittances play an important role in the economy of the region, totalling over $66.5 billion in 2007, with about 75% originating in the United States. This total represents more than the sum of foreign direct investment (FDI) and official development aid (ODA) combined. In 7 Latin American and Caribbean countries remittances account for more than 10% of GDP and exceed the dollar flows of the largest export product in almost every country in the region.

A majority of the remittances from the US have been directed to Asian countries such as India, the Philippines and China. Most of the remittances happen by conventional channel of agents, however online money transfer has gained substantial momentum over the years.

One-third of the money sent originates in the United States, most of the rest is sent from Europe and the Middle East. A significant volume of remittance money circulates within the developing world as well.

Latin America and the Caribbean is the region receiving the highest level of remittances per capita and the money flowing to the region has risen tenfold in real terms over the past 20 years. After climbing at double-digit rates in the last decade, the flow now appears to be levelling off.

Most of the money received in this region is used for everyday living expenses, from food and home repairs to school tuition. What interests economists most, though, is the potential for remittances to contribute to economic development. Remittances tend to increase bank deposits, reflecting potential for investment.

Research has also found that higher remittance flows are associated with lower poverty, better health and higher levels of education in the developing world.

Yet the increasing remittance flows have a downside-families and national economies that rely on the money sent from nationals working abroad become vulnerable to distant events and trends. Also, many countries dependent on remittance see their working-age adult population shrink. Family members left behind may stop working and wait month-to-month for money from overseas.

However, today remittance checks are helping millions of households across the globe to keep food on the table and a roof overhead. Although the evidence hardly hails them as a long-term solution to global poverty, as long as remittance flows continue, they should be both facilitated and regulated.

Understanding Chinese Tier Cities For Business

Years of economic reform ranged from the political relaxation of foreign direct investments to the promotion of entrepreneurship, China has emerged as one of the world's top economies. As such, Beijing Olympics 2008 serves as a new chapter milestone that signifies the beginning of China's third wave of economic growth - Industrial consolidation.

As such, it is a good time to examine how the Chinese cities have developed according to the traditional tiered city system. If you highlight all the first and second tiered cities in China, you will understand how the Chinese government plans to develop China into the world's largest economy.

In the 1980s, instead of opening up the whole of China, China, as part of an economic risk reduction strategy decided to develop special economic zones and open up cities near the coast for foreign investments. Coastal cities aid imports and exports. In addition, agglomerating the "test" cities can develop economies of scale relating to transportation infrastructure. Furthermore, resources from western China were drawn and consolidated to support these strategically positioned coastal cities prominently for Beijing in the north, Shanghai in the midst, and Guangzhou in the south, with Shenzhen acting as a gateway from Hong Kong.

As a result of shorter and improved transportation and communication infrastructure, economic development proliferates to the nearby cities, gradually moving westwards into China. Concurrently, the Chinese government also developed pockets of economic drivers especially in different provincial capitals in order to timely introduce economic growth at different regions. As such, cities begin their economic reform at different stages and thus with time, this became known as the Chinese tiered city system with cities given the connotation as first, second, third or fourth tier cities.

The Chinese tiered city system is characterized by the city's population size with Shanghai topping the China's city population chart at 20 million, followed by Beijing and Guangzhou with 17 million and 12 million respectively. These large cities, fuelled by own domestic demand and consumption provided the platform for improved living standards, better business and job opportunities and an international showcase to the rest of the world. However, these cities now faced a population ceiling challenge with stiff business competition which may reduce high exponential growth that was seen in the past.

The third wave will see more of the second tier cities in action. With over 20 cities in this category, China is set to develop these cities as the backbone of China's future economy. It is important to note that China will not remain as a low cost sweat shop and is definitely set to move up the value chain, focusing its efforts on high end industries and at the same time eliminating or pushing low-medium end industries into its lower tiered cities particularly with the third and fourth tier cities.

Already armed with a relatively medium to high disposable incomes and an average GDP per capita of RMB30000, these second tiered cities provide a lucrative option for firms to apply blue ocean strategy on Chinese domestic markets. Due to the Chinese emphasis on "Mian Zi" or "face" plus the lack of variety for luxury and branded goods in their cities, the rich and affluent from lower tiered cities often make short trips to Beijing and Shanghai for their luxury shopping. Therefore, having your presence in the second tier cities can provide greater proximity and convenience for these target groups.

China in the past 20 years is akin to a baby dragon playing around its nest, testing and trying out new ways of doing things, showing the world her head and wings. Now it is ready to emerge more of her to the world - the backbone akin the second tiered cities.

America's Edge in the Politics of Global Investing

Unlike most investment advisors and strategists, I pay a lot of attention to politics, both here in America and in overseas markets. The politics of a country tells me a lot about the probability of long-term economic growth and stability - vital ingredients for successful investing. It also reveals a country's culture, business climate and durability in the wake of shocks like the real estate downturn. Countries with free and open political systems can take sledgehammer blows and come back fighting.

And while we do not know whether the Dow will be up or down tomorrow, we do know that, just past midnight, the citizens of Dixville Notch, will, as usual, be the first American citizens to vote in the New Hampshire presidential primary.

The current presidential campaign really has my blood pumping. The race between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama has been turned upside down with John Edwards jockeying for an opening. The Republican race is even more fluid and open with the sudden rise of former Governor Huckabee posing a threat to former Governor Romney, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani losing steam in national polls and re-directing his efforts to big states like California and Florida. All this movement has creating an opening for the old lion, Senator John McCain, whose campaign was left for dead only a few months ago and is staging a comeback in New Hampshire.

For a political junkie like me, it doesn't get any better than this.

The Chinese leaders love to describe American democracy as a "moneybags democracy" but the current race highlights that issues, personality, and strategy can oftentimes trump money. Mr. Huckabee won in Iowa despite being outspent 20 to 1, the upstart Mr. Obama has matched the Clinton money machine dollar for dollar by gathering small donations and Mr. McCain is back in action despite his bus budget.

Just as important, even candidates far back in the polls can raise money with a platform of conviction. Libertarian Texas Congressman Ron Paul recently broke the one day fundraising record, raking in more than $5 million through an internet campaign.

Then there is the relatively civil conduct of our campaigns and the fair, smooth transfer of executive power. Sure politics everywhere is a contact sport but we look pretty good compared to the fisticuffs last month in South Korea, the chaotic situation in Pakistan, and the ham-handed turnover of power in Russia from Mr. Putin to well - Mr. Putin.

Pakistan is the clearest example of political turmoil and one wonders how events unfolding there might impact its neighbor India's booming stock market represented by ETFs such as (IFN). Next door neighbor India is closely monitoring events in Pakistan for any security challenges that may come about. Keep in mind that there are more Muslims living in India than in Pakistan and that both countries possess nuclear weapons. Since the creation of Pakistan in 1947, the two countries have fought three major wars. The first two stemmed from the conflict over Jammu & Kashmir, the northernmost state of India, which also shares a border with Pakistan. The accession of Jammu & Kashmir to India in 1947 has long been disputed by Pakistan.

2008 also brings some important elections which will no doubt affect markets. In Thailand, the People's Power party, allies of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, emerged as the largest party after Christmas Eve elections, but fell just short of a majority so the forming of any government in 2008 remains unclear. It is tough to have confidence in the Thai market (TF) without some confidence that a government is in place, even though it is attractive from a valuation perspective.

Japan's premier, Mr. Fukuda, not even three months into the job, is suffering from the same lack of confidence and popularity that sank his predecessor, Mr. Abe. This helped make Japan Asia's worst performing index (EWJ) last year. Is it an accident that Japan's bull market coincided with former Prime Minister Koizumi's strong economic and foreign affairs agenda?

Presidential elections are due to take place in Taiwan this March and will have significant implications for relations with China. It could very well open up more economic channels between the two countries and serve as a catalyst for Taiwan's recently lackluster ETF (EWT). South Korea faces parliamentary elections in April, the results of which will be crucial to shoring up support for pro-market reforms planned by President-elect Lee Myung-bak.

This highlights one of the most difficult aspects of a working democracy - the concept of a loyal opposition. Many cultures have great difficulty grasping and practicing that you can oppose government policies and seek to change them while still being patriotic and loyal to your country. The expression "where opinions clash, freedom rings" is alien and unwelcome in many countries around the world.

Our two-party system, while roundly criticized by many, is also very important. Coalition governments tend to be a bit unwieldy and unstable. Just note the situation in India where some relatively small Communist party factions in the ruling coalition block significant market economic reforms.

And great bull markets usually begin to build momentum together with significant economic market reforms. America's economic growth even today can be traced back to President Reagan's supply side tax cuts, the centerpiece of his 1980 platform. Ireland's economy was a mess with middle-income earners taxed over 60% of their wages and government borrowing out of control.

Then Charlie Haughey became prime minister. Taxes and spending were cut sharply and multinationals like Apple, Microsoft and Dell were lured across the Atlantic through a range of incentives including low corporate tax rates. The Irish market was off and running, but alas, the impact of these dramatic reforms has faded with time and with it prospects for Ireland funds such as the New Ireland Fund (IRL).

Similarly, the reforms enacted by former Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke during the 1980's set the stage for a remarkable run of prosperity, and reinforced by John Howard, helped make the Australian market (EWA) the darling of global investors. The same was true of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's election and the subsequent revival of the British economy.

The reason all of these programs were successfully executed and lasting is because they first garnered support through the political process. It may take a bit longer than many would like, but reforms vetted through the democratic process are lasting and gain legitimacy. In the end, voters demand and reward change.

One interesting and important global political trend is that support for globalization is now stronger in emerging market countries than here in America. This is a sharp reversal from just a decade ago when emerging market politicians used foreign multinational companies as scapegoats.

A recent poll by the Wall Street Journal and NBC found that 58 per cent of Americans think that globalization has been bad for the US and that only 28 per cent believe that it has been good. Ten years ago the split was more even: 48 per cent thought that globalization was good and 42 per cent that it was bad. The biggest surprise is that supporters of the two parties are no longer far apart on the question. Globalization has been bad for the US according to 55 per cent of Republicans and 63 per cent of Democrats. This sentiment can only be turned around through open and honest political debate about economic policies that will enable American companies to generate more jobs and profits by gaining market share in fast-growing emerging markets.

Politics in democracies like America also mirror its entrepreneurial business culture. In most cases, candidates for public office today are self selected, not chosen by the party machine. Candidates for public office in America are just like our 25 million small business owners that struck out on their own with little more than a hope and a prayer and somehow managed to endure and prosper.

But I don't mean to imply that politics is just important because of its impact on business. Rather it goes to a country's core values and to the heart of its quality of life. What good is all the money in the world if citizens do not have freedom of expression, freedom of religion, due process and the right to choose ones leaders? No thanks.

Then there is the ultimate test. Whether people around the world want to come and live in your country. No matter what you think about securing our border with Mexico, it is important to remember that people want to get into America while in some countries walls have kept people in who want to get out.

So even in the face of a temporary economic slowdown, banking problems, global competition and turbulent markets, keep in mind that American politics is a major competitive strength. Without a free, open and robust political process, all the economic growth will only get you so far until you hit a giant speed bump and derail.

So don't forget to take into consideration politics when building your global portfolio.

BRIC Countries - An Overview

The term BRIC is a short form of Brazil, Russia, India & China. There is so much being discussed about BRIC countries that I thought we should take an overview of what BRIC countries signify in the world of Investments.

World economies have seen many bumps & turbulence over a recent past. That is the main reason why BRIC countries have gained importance in the eyes of world wide investors. Reducing rates of internal economical growth, reduction in domestic demand, falling markets have created major threats to the survival of Global Investors & they are searching for new avenues for investing their funds to ensure a good return on capital & also the safety for their capital.

Definition of BRIC:

Jim O'Neill from Goldman Sachs head of Global Economic Research came up with this short form BRIC for Brazil, Russia, India & China. He first defined the BRIC Countries in his report on Emerging Markets in year 2001.

What makes BRIC different from other Economies:

As per Jim O'Neill BRIC Report the combined economical wealth of these four nations would be more than the wealth of the richest nations by year 2050. As of today these four countries taken together would account for around 40 % of World Population & around 25 % of Global Land. This optimistic scenario would offer better growth as well as safety for investors.

* Brazil is 5th most populated Country of the world & the 9th highest GDP in the world.

* Russia is at 7th rank in most highest GDP.

* India is the 2nd most populated country of the world & the 4th highest GDP rank.

* China is the most populated country of the world & the 2nd highest GDP. The 1st rank being United States.

As per the Goldman Sach report these four countries would be having sustained growth over next 40 years that would surpass the European Countries in terms of economic growth.

We have seen many ups & downs in the Global economies due to credit crisis & various bubbles created through improper trading practices. Emerging markets are becoming heaven for global investors due to their realistic & somehow conservative growth policies.

BRIC Countries offer high level of economic growth with sustainable rate of economic activity that is estimated to last for some decades to come. Given the turbulent global market scenario investor are getting attracted to BRIC nations due to high rate of return on investment plus a Capital appreciation anticipated.

As a Global Investor one can not ignore the growth potential of these countries & any investment in these countries would guarantee an improvement Portfolio performance. This has diverted the attention of most of the global Investors from western countries to BRIC nations. This global attention would again help these countries to harness their resources in most optimum way & would make these markets more competitive ensuring more transparency in market operations.

The chain effect of this would last for at least 3 to 4 decades to come & these countries would become a focal point for global investors to invest.

In summary I can say that as a Global investor you can not ignore the importance of BRIC countries & you can further compare these countries among themselves to find out which is the best one to invest in to optimize your investment portfolio.

Is the Dollar Doomed to Keep Falling?

Since 2001 the dollar has been in steady decline. Against the £ the dollar has fallen from a low of £1 = $1.45 to close to the £1 = $2 mark. Against the Euro the $ has also depreciated from 0.85 to the present level of 1 Euro to $1.35.

From several perspectives the fall in the value of the dollar appears to be following basic economic fundamentals and whilst these imbalance continue the dollar may continue to fall.

Firstly the US current account deficit is remaining at record levels. The exact amount of debt with the rest of the world is predicted to be around $710 billion for 2006 [1]
Basically this means America is importing more than it is exporting, causing an outflow of money. In recent years this huge level of debt has been bought by countries like Asia who have been happy to buy into the dollar for its perceived status as a "stable and secure" currency. However there is increasing evidence Asian bankers are no longer so confident in the American economy. Thus they are seeking to divest from the dollar and reduce their dollar holdings. As this occurs the dollar will have to fall as there is insufficient buyers of American debt.[2]

Secondly the future for economic growth is no longer looking so positive. Growth forecasts have recently been downgraded. The OECD has downgraded is growth forecasts for the US economy from 3.6% to 2.4%. Pessimists such as Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics [2] are predicting a recession in the US by the middle of 2007. An important factor in declining growth forecasts is the falling US consumer confidence.

Related to this is a signal that the previous ebullient housing market may have at last turned the corner. Whilst new house prices continue to rise. The median price of old houses have fallen by 3.5% since last year. Whilst a fall of 3.5% may not sound that much, it is the biggest on record. Also rising house prices have been a key factor in maintaining consumer spending in recent years. The level of personal debt amongst US consumers is at another all time high. The ratio of consumer debt to disposable income has risen from 62% in 1980 to 127% in 2005 [3]

Thus a fall in house prices will have a powerful knock on effect on the rest of the US economy as consumers struggle to refinance and meet levels of debt. Another consequence of this high level of consumer debt is that the US economy will be particularly sensitive to any rise in interest rates. Higher interest rates would be one solution to a falling currency and may be necessary to attract investors to finance America's trade deficit. Although the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates is remote at the moment. Continued falls in American dollars would cause a rise in the long term interest rates on American secutities.

However some economists argue that prospects for the dollar may not be as bad as some predict. Firstly as Anatole Kaletsky argues [4] in an era of globalisation and deregulated financial markets, trade deficits are not as difficult to finance as they used to be. Empirical evidence suggests that trade deficits are very unreliable as a guide to exchange rate movements. Firstly one of the few countries with a current account surplus is Japan. Their current account surplus has been growing and yet the Yen is one of the few currencies to have fallen against the dollar. [4]

Secondly although American growth is slowing at the moment it is not doing much worse than the EU and Japan economies. The gap in interest rates between the 2 economic areas is still only about 2%. If there are good reasons for the dollars weakness there are less good reasons for the strength of the EURO. Also some American economists such as Ben Bernanke of the Federal reserve remain optimistic about the state of the US economy arguing growth is only marginally below trend rate.

However it is important not to underestimate the importance of general market sentiment regarding the American economy. Political problems such as in Iraq have to an extent undermined America's standing as a leader of the World in both an economic and political sense. For 50 years America has been the undisputed global economic superpower, but slowly perceptions are changing that the era of the dollar may becoming to an end. As people switch out of dollars it could create a powerful multiplier effect as investment bankers are reluctant to hold onto their dollar assets.

America to a large extent can't avoid a period of adjustment as it seeks to deal with its triple deficits, trade deficits with the rest of the world, consumer debt, and US government debt. Whether the period of adjustment is gradual or painful will depend upon 2 things. Firstly how significant will be the fall in US house prices and consequent fall in consumer confidence. Secondly it will depend on the attitude of Asian bankers, in particular the Chinese. Since they hold so many $ assets they may try to manage a gradual devaluation, a continuation of the past 5 years. However if the dollar does lose its status as the reserve currency of the world, there could be a growing stampede as America's creditors seek to cash in their cheques. This would exacerbate the fall of the dollar, causing real economic hardship for America and the rest of the world.

The only thing for sure is that European consumers are likely to be get some real bargains from shopping in America for the considerable future.

References

[1] http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/01/12/business/main1203762.shtml

[2] http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8361260

[3] Available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/Z1/Current/

[4] http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,630-2485597.html - Demise of Dollar greatly exaggerated

Jamaica's History of Independence

Like any other country in 1929, Jamaica was experiencing a drop in its economic growth. The effects of this were starting to show in a decline of social conditions. In 1938 the labor riots were a turning point in the history of Jamaica and its independence.

The Bustamante Industrial Trade Union (BITU) was formed by Alexander Bustamante. This labor union was later to be involved with the Jamaica Labor Party. In 1938 Norman Manley, cousin to Alexander Bustmante, formed the People's National Party.

Manley led the country to Self Government and later on Bustamante became the first prime minister of Jamaica.

In 1944 Adult Suffrage was granted giving all males and females over the age of 21 to vote. The first election held under the Universal Adult Suffrage was held in 1944 and the Jamaica Labor Party won 25 out of 32 seats.

The Federation of the West Indies was started in 1959 and Jamaica was part of this group. A referendum was called to determine whether or not the people of Jamaica should remain a part of the federation. The people chose independence.

In January 1962, a draft of the Independence Constitution was brought before both Houses and after a full debate was unanimously approved. It was also agreed that the 300 year old Coat of Arms would be retained and the Latin motto "Indus Uterque Serviet Uni" changed to one in English "Out of Many One People".
At midnight 5th August 1962 the British Flag was lowered and the Jamaican Flag was hoisted for the first time. On the 6th of August 1962 Jamaica was given its independence. Sir Kenneth Blackburne was the last Colonial Governor and the first Governor General. Afterwards, Sir Clifford Campbell, formerly President of the Senate, became the first Jamaican Governor General.
Jamaica today is a great place to visit for vacation and enjoy the beautiful scenery.

America and her Economic Future in the World Economy, a Thought

It appears we are attacking ourselves in the United States and punishing our own team thru over regulation. We need to fix ourselves by becoming better at what we do, better than everyone else in the World. Just because Multi-National Conglomerates cannot make a huge killing over there every quarter is no reason to sacrifice our standard of living here. The European economies would like to be on the same page as us as far as a standardized Euro=Dollar, and that would be great, but not until tariffs disappear so we can make the stuff here too. Also what happens when we change our chess game for a weak dollar and then they restrict our goods to save their corporations and job base there?

We are different cultures and different political whims and the book Future Perfect sounds great, but there is a reality check on many of the notions of this type of game plan. Why choose a plan, have several plays ready to execute, ones which will not affect our middle class and job base. If we concentrate on quality, strength, innovation and have a great economy then entrepreneurs who built America can continue to find funding to explore new fields, and continue to hit milestones like Chuck Yeager did while we watched our technology break the sound barrier. Look at Intel, and Andy Groves vision, protecting our intellectual property and producing smaller, faster and more powerful chips exponentially. Do we need to weaken the dollar for companies like that? NO, we simply sell our wares a little cheaper in those markets, which require us to or we simply do not sell there. Is it the roll of government to decide that for us? By lowering our standard of living until the dollar reaches a lower rate against the other World Currencies? Especially considering that those other currencies are much less stable than ours and those markets may disappear at anytime if they collapse. Then is it up to us and the IMF to bail those economies out, when they fail to listen to reason, pollute the World, steal the money is and bow out gracefully when it is time to return the money? Look at this last round in Russia, 1/3 of the money to clean up the nuclear problem of Chernople, gone. Russian Nuclear Subs of the Arms Race Era docked in a muddy inlet, some on their sides. And the money given to clean it up, where did it go? They built a new fighter jet to compete with our newest. Why, not go clean it up our selves or just forget it? We may as well put to work America factories to build rockets and shoot them into the sun for fun. Or build devices to go on the back of cows to capture the methane to use as fuel to run steam generators to make electricity. Oh you know what? Just think about it yourself, we need a reality check in the real world; not a created reality that is not working.

What is a Recession Anyway?

Politicians and economists have debated the likelihood of recession in the United States for the past several months. As you know, the president and congress have enacted a preemptive stimulus package of tax rebates to minimize the effects of a possible recession. While the term "recession" is often used in public discourse, most Americans do not understand its definition. Unfortunately, that definition is elusive. There are two generally accepted descriptions of recession and they are sometimes at loggerheads with one another.

Moreover, one of those definitions is vague by design. The traditional definition of an economic recession is two or more consecutive quarters of negative real economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). The prediction markets use this definition. Of course, it takes time to compile comprehensive data. There are three separate iterations of quarterly GDP growth - two estimates followed by a "final" number. This final compilation is not released until nearly three months after the end of the quarter it measures. So far, aggregate economic growth has not indicated recession. The initial estimate of first quarter GDP growth was actually positive at +0.6%. A revision to this estimate is due out next week. Since 1961, The US government has recognized the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee as the "official" arbiter of recession. This is a seven member group of academic economists. The NBER does not use any specific methodology for determining the start and end dates of a recession - instead it looks at a variety of economic indicators over various time periods and determines whether to declare that the economy is in a recession based on that data. Here is the NBER's official policy on recession:

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

The NBER is very deliberate in its assessment of the underlying data to avoid the need for revision. Its own policy is to wait "6 to 18 months" after the beginning of a recession to declare that one has started. In fact, they waited 20 months to declare that the last recession officially ended in November 2001! It is interesting to note the US economy actually never had two consecutive quarters of GDP decline during the 2000-2001 period. NBER committee members can complicate things by voicing their own views. They are not restricted as are government bureaucrats. Martin Feldstein, opined in March that his "personal view" was that the United States was already in recession. He reinforced those views just last week in declaring that this recession would be "severe". In contrast, Edward Lazear told a meeting of Wall Street Journal journalists that "the data are pretty clear we're not in a recession." Even the guys who are supposed to decide what a recession is cannot agree.

Meanwhile, the economic data offers a glimmer of hope. The US trade deficit is falling faster than anticipated and this will likely spur anupward revision the 1st quarter GDP due outst quarter was that "the data are pretty clear we're not in a recession." Even the guys who are supposed to decide what a recession is cannot agree. Meanwhile, the economic data offers a glimmer of hope. The US trade deficit is falling faster than anticipated and this will likely spur an upward revision the 1 next week. The consensus of economic experts now is that GDP growth in the 1 actually +0.9%. Monday's release of the Leading Economic Indicators for April was also positive as it evidenced mildly improving conditions- the second consecutive monthly upswing. In an election year with anemic growth, the labeling of the US economic condition will take on urgent meaning. This will put the NBER's business cycle dating committee to the test.

Understanding Economic Cycles (Business Cycles)

Definition from Wikipedia.org.:The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the fluctuations of economic activity about its long term growth trend. The cycle involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output (recovery and prosperity), and periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession). These fluctuations are often measured using the real gross domestic product. Despite being named cycles, these fluctuations in economic growth and decline do not follow a purely mechanical or predictable periodic pattern.

The economic clock is a simplified approach to understanding our position as to the health of the ecomony. It also assists to identify the best performing market sectors in elation to the growth area of the economic cycle. Keep in mind that the there any number of random influences that effect the economy such as wars, natural disasters and the like that sway the cycle and effect the transistion. It wiil never be a perfect cycle and should only be used as guide to assist with investment decisions.

The above example is very simplified version of economic expansion and contraction. The Economic Cycle Research Institute or ECRI http://www.businesscycle.com earn a living from analysing the economy and providing detailed information on the health of the economy by way of specialized indicators from various economic sources. These indicators are complied and the result is some of the best leading index indicators for picking turning points in the economy. One indicator we follow is the Weekly Leading Index or WLI.

It is worth visiting the website http://www.businesscycle.com/about/approach/ to get a better understanding or read the book

Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy, by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, New York: Currency Doubleday, 2004.
In Martin J. Pring's book, The Investors Guide to Active Asset Allocation, 2006. He describe the bussiness cycles in six stages, where:

o Stage 1 - only Bonds are bullish;

o Stage 2 - Only commodities are bearish;

o Stage 3 - Everything is bullish;

o Stage 4 - Bonds begin a bear market but stocks and commodities remain bullish,

o Stage 5 - only commodities are bullish) and Stage 6 - Nothing is Bullish

Martin is a well respected market analyst and commentator and in his book he clearly describes the intermarket relationships between the major markets and how they are intrinsically tied with each other. The flow on effects of each cycle then affects the corresponding business sectors expanding or contracting business in each of these sectors.

2009-2010 Inflation (Or Hyperinflation)

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.The term "inflation" once referred to increases in the money supply (monetary inflation); however, economic debates about the relationship between money supply and price levels have led to its primary use today in describing price inflation.

In economics, hyperinflation is inflation that is "out of control", a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value. Formal definitions vary from a cumulative inflation rate over three years approaching 100% to "inflation exceeding 50% a month." In informal usage the term is often applied to much lower rates.

I think a lot of things will be much higher in price, including oil, next year or maybe later this year. But, don't confuse price with value.

If there is any economic recovery globally and the dollar is falling, we could see any possible price you want to imagine but, it would be in dollars, and not other currencies.

There are several analysts that are predicting a large drop in the dollar and that will even give the markets a boost. Using an extreme example, you could see DOW 50,000 by the end of the year if the dollar gets dumped but, while you would have seen over 40,000 more pts. you couldn't buy any more at 50,000 than now, if you sold it and probably a lot less.

The price of the DOW doesn't reflect value, just price. Oil is the same. If there is a recovery globally, oil demand will rise and with all the supply being cut now, it will cause oil to go back up for all nations but, if the dollar is falling, even if they don't pay more, we will. We could pay $1,000 a barrel or $10,000 a barrel or $1 million a barrel as that is what happens when a currency collapses.

For those who say that would crush our economy. Correct 100%. That too, is what happens when a currency collapses. The world basically moves on without you.

If that happens to the U.S. then the world will move on but much slower than before. Because we are such large consumers there is good news and bad news in that.

The countries that move on would find fewer buyers but, also less demand for copper, oil, steel, concrete, etc. and thus, they could still have profits even with fewer exports. They may not be large for years but, there are two sides to U.S. consumption. It drives up both the price of goods and the price of things to make goods with when we consume a lot.

Peter Schiff goes as far as to say the world's exporters would actually be better off without us increasing demand for raw materials so much due to our consumption.

However, just as it takes a depression for us to go from debtor nation to creditor nation, it will take a global recession at the minimum to go from a global economy dependent on us to one that isn't.

Consumption is touted as this big "cure all," but, it isn't. Production and making things faster than debt rises, is the cure all. Spending less than you earn, saving so you can spend in down times, budgeting, and sensible investing vs. "gambling" on stock moves is the "cure." Less government, not more, less government spending, not more, fewer programs not more at the federal level is what we need.

If we aren't already there then soon we will be more of a drag on the global economy than aid to it. Peter Schiff, if not right now, soon will be.

Think of it this way. You make things. I buy from you but, to keep buying from you, you have to keep loaning me money from what I pay you. To make it worse, I pay you back with devalued money so that you are even losing buying power with every new loan to me.

How long are you going to keep selling to me? You end up better off making something else and selling to somebody else or just making the stuff for "trade" and "sale" with people you buy your raw materials from.

In the last couple of years, one oil nation, Venezuela has done just that. It "trades" some of its oil instead of selling it for things it needs from nations that don't want to "buy dollars" to buy oil with and that have materials that Venezuela needs.

Iran stopped using dollars, too. It even got Japan to buy the oil it gets from Iran in Yen as well as sell in euros to other nations.

In short, there are no certainties going forward except that we have to change the way we run this nation from top to bottom.

Should You Start a Business During a Recession?

I say a resounding - maybe. Regardless of all the bad news spewed out in the media versus all the contrarians telling you to sink everything you have into marketing because nobody else is and you will get market share, it's not that cut and dry.

I suggest you stick to your plan of starting the business. HOWEVER, now more than ever, you should keep your day job.  It's not time for experimenting. If your new venture starts to succeed with part-time results then you could keep shifting your emphasis in that direction. But what if you don't see any results? Is it because you don't have a good idea or a good product? Is it because the economy is slow and nobody's buying? Or, are you in an industry that is not "recession proof" and one that ebbs and flows with the general economy?

What I am saying, is that it's difficult enough to run a business and gauge its success during normal economic growth cycles. Don't put yourself under undue pressure when you don't need to. Recessions are called that because business recedes to a lower level. That being said, there are some businesses that actually do better in a recession and there are some products that people still have to have. Collection agency is one of the first businesses that come to mind. Discount or coupon related marketing are another. And people always have to eat; just maybe not at a restaurant.

There are some things that you can do during the downtime to help you prepare for the time when there is a better business climate. Here's a few tips:

Network more. Find people who would be great for your company when you start hiring. They may be looking for a job then. Also, go out to lunch with an entrepreneur. Ask them what they are doing to keep their business growing during the economic downturn.

Purchase products you know you will need. Typically, in a recession, prices come way down and there are some bargains to be had.

Keep learning. You have more time to use to your advantage. Use it wisely. Increase your learning effort on all aspects of your business, including studying your industry and your competition. I don't advocate spending a lot of time being obsessed with your competition, but in this case time is on your side and not theirs. Perhaps they might want to get out of a part of their business and let you take it over. Sometimes, if the timing is right, a business will be happy to let go of a product line or group, just for taking over the expenses.

We Miss the Eloquence and Logic of Milton Friedman Now More Than Ever

One of the signal economic thinkers of the 20th century was the Nobel Prize winning economist Milton Friedman. His many books and papers, interviews and television specials have left us a valuable trove of thoughts and observations that should serve as guideposts during our current difficult economic times. His death has left a void that no contemporary thinker has been able to fill. That is most unfortunate, especially now.

Recently, I revisited my copy of Professor Friedman's signature work, Free to Choose. It is still as pertinent, fresh and poignant, as it was the day it was first published. His reasoned defense of economic and personal freedom, strictly limited government and the rule of law need to be reviewed and protected fiercely by each citizen that values these sacred rights.

"Thank heavens we do not get all of the government that we are made to pay for", stated Professor Friedman in one of his most oft quoted observations. The simple, but powerful clarity of these 17 words serve as testament to the deep understanding and concern he possessed about the ever-expanding role of centrally planned, distant government and the excessive price we pay for it. We see the detritus of insatiable government in every aspect of our lives, and yet, we seem incapable of slowing, preferably stopping the rapid growth of this corrupt, inefficient monster.

The Federal Government is nearing a 3 trillion dollar annual budget. No one really knows the exact amount of deficit spending we incur each year, but it is massive and growing. The more revenue the government realizes, the faster spending increases. We have un-funded liabilities of somewhere around $53 trillion for Medicare and Medicaid, and $25 trillion for Social Security. These are just estimates; no one can state the absolute accurate numbers. And, remember the government refers to these obligations as "un-funded liabilities", not debt as private citizens and industry would be required to report and account for.

In 1976, President Jimmy Carter created the Department of Education. Before then, education was largely a local affair. This boondoggle has grown massively since its inception in employees, budget, programs and un-funded mandates. Less than 7% of the $60 Billion annual budget for the DOE is returned to state and local schools as grants. The rest is consumed in "bureaucracy heaven". Can anyone seriously argue that public school performance has improved since we were blessed with the Department of Education and the thousands of theoreticians, consultants and knowledge brokers that this cesspool supports? You can actually graph the decline of graduation rates, the increase in truancy, lowered standardized test scores and achievement tests from the date we were blessed with the DOE.

The government enjoys natural monopolies in many areas. The Postal Service, the Passport Office, AMTRACK, The FAA, and so many more government agencies provide we citizens with one stop shopping. In every case, the result is subsidy, waste, and mismanagement. Waiting up to 90 days to receive a passport is ridiculous. The Postal Service and AMTRACK require subsidies every year, while FedEx, UPS, and the railroads make billions of dollars in profit each year. Why would any thinking person believe that government should be expanded into even more areas of our lives.

Thomas Jefferson, a soul brother to Milton Friedman said, "He is governed best who is governed least". And yet, an ever-growing segment of our citizenry constantly seeks to redress perceived grievances and personally poor decision making by petitioning politicians for outcomes favorable to their desires. We know with absolute certainty that government is too large, inefficient, duplicitous and wasteful to solve problems.

Government is not in business to solve problems: it is in business to institutionalize problems! Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, Welfare, Food Stamps have all grown exponentially. The problems these programs, and many others, were supposed to address have grown even more exponentially. Bureaucracies are not in the business of solving problems and shrinking, then going out of business as they successfully complete their mission. The very core of the nature of a bureaucracy is to grow insatiably.

As more citizens abdicate their personal responsibilities and seek government support, there are all too many politicians, lobbyists, issue advocates and social engineers ready to comply and satisfy this sycophancy. We see many people campaigning for a government takeover of the health care system. When government provides free health care: that is when health care will get really expensive! How in the world can so many people, be so blind about so much.

My Company provides consulting services to inventors, small businesses and entrepreneurs bootstrapping businesses. By their very nature, these people are fearless, independent, creative and driven. They seek to take advantage of the amazing opportunities available to every citizen of the United States, if only they would take advantage of these possibilities. To a person, successful entrepreneurs do not understand, and usually despise government dependency. Simply being a citizen of this great country is the equivalent of winning the geographic lottery.

President John Kennedy famously stated, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country"? The growing sentiment today seems to infer, ask not what you can do for your country; ask what your country can do for you? John Kennedy, Milton Friedman and Thomas Jefferson are symbolic personages of a sentiment that must be revived. Every citizen must contribute to the public good, but the government must get out of the way and let the populace live and prosper by the dint of their own efforts. Downsizing this albatross is in order, and quickly!

Interview for "Multitudes at the Crossroads" Author F. J. Colberg

Reader Views welcomes author F.J. Colberg, as he talks about his new book "Multitudes at the Crossroads. F. J. Colberg is talking with Juanita Watson, Assistant Editor of Reader Views.

Juanita: Thanks for talking with us today F. J. Please tell us what your book "Multitudes at the Crossroads" is all about.

Frank: I want to thank you for the opportunity to present this project to your readers. The book examines the recurring cycles in history, nature, economy and how these cycles and tendencies are converging before our very eyes, with very serious implications. When the events of the Middle East, the race for oil and the emergence of China as an economic powerhouse, are examined carefully, we can only come to the conclusion that powerful hiccups are coming our way. Then the Bible's prophetic relevance comes to life, as the events we are witnessing are clearly foretold by inspired prophets. The book examines these events and their implications.

Juanita: What inspired you to write your book?

Frank: For some years now I have had a great deal of interest in history, economy and the social sciences in general, and as I read into these topics I began to observe an emerging picture of deterioration or entropy, if you will, in our social fiber. As I began to put my thoughts on paper, the tsunami hit, and a great sense of urgency came over me. It was like a veil was lifted from my eyes and suddenly two plus two equaled four. Most people see the news, that is what the networks would have us see, not realizing that a tendency is clearly developing. I think most people don't give these topics more thought, out of a sense of impotence. Even though the book presents difficult times ahead, it also presents hope for a new world, without war, hunger and the suffering we are involved in.

Juanita: You talk about cycles and the effect they have on modern times. Can you explain how and why history repeats itself in this way?

Frank: Everywhere we look we can observe patterns that are continually repeated. We know that after the darkest night, the sun will rise. Seasons come and go with regularity. So too with most things that affect human nature. After a terrible war, think WWI , men spoke of it as "he war to end all wars". Well, we know that WWII was just around the corner. The cycle has been repeating for ages untold, so why would we not think that another, more terrible war is in the cards? If we look at empires we can mention Assyria, the Babylonians, conquered by the Persians, the Greeks, Romans and on and on until we come to our great nation. How long before the barbarians knock down our gates, is anybody's guess, but they will be there, in time. Somebody said, "the only thing that we have learned from history is that we don't learn from history". We can apply the same to weather patterns; we know that hurricanes have an intense period of activity and then a relatively quite period. We forgot and build on our coastlines as if the storms were never coming back. We will pay dearly for our forgetfulness as the pattern reasserts itself. We can say the same for economic times of prosperity and lack, yet we live as if there will be no tomorrow. Winston Churchill said something like "the further back we look in history, the more we see into the future". How true!

Juanita: What are some examples of things that are going on today that can be directly understood through the Bible?

Frank: Juanita, to many the Bible is nothing but an allegorical collection of stories that make for great bedtime reading. In reality it is more a message from beyond time and space, containing all the wisdom necessary to understand the world around us and not be confused by the events we are living. A clear example is the events of the Middle East. You do not have to be a Bible scholar to know that there will not be any peace there anytime soon. Without being a prophet I can confidently tell you that in the near future Israel's only ally, the US, will also turn its back on the Jews. But no matter what the Arab nations do they will not succeed in driving Israel into the sea. Not while God is in control. The same promise that brought Israel back to the land in 1948, will keep her there, with much tribulation, until the Lord returns.

Juanita: What other significant examples are of most concern to you?

Frank: We know that nature will go thru much despair, and this in turn will mean famine, plagues and then, political unrest as never before. The book of Revelation goes into great detail of these not so distant events. There the picture is of four horsemen, one being a great political figure that will appear to bring peace and solutions to the troubled world, but instead will make the likes of Stalin and Hitler pale by comparison.

Juanita: How did those that prophesized our future in the bible, know what would happen in a time so far away?

Frank: This is the part that is most difficult for most to accept. The only explanation I know of is that the Bible is the inspired revelation of a God outside our limited dimensions, reaching out and revealing Himself to us. We know that the Old Testament was in existence as an integral document, translated from Hebrew to Greek 300 years before Christ in the Egyptian learning center of Alexandria. Yet it gives hundreds of prophesies about Jesus' coming, some as specific as to the sleepy village He would be born in, named Bethlehem, and that He would be crucified, in death, when that barbaric method of capital punishment was not yet being used. So the difference of hundreds of years as opposed to a couple of thousand, just places the revelation outside of the constraints of time.

Juanita: What is happening politically worldwide and how has this been prophesized in the Bible?

Frank: For one thing we know that the problems are getting more complex by the day. Wars are a different monster with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Al Gore is not the only one concerned about Global Warming and all its implications. This all translates to a greater need for effective leadership, something that is more difficult as more polarized positions need to be bridged. Going back to history, we see that the great dictators of our times - Mao, Hitler, Stalin - all flourished when the corresponding societies were in shambles. Humans have a great need for paternalistic protection. So when things get really ugly we seek refuge in a strong hand that promises to pull us thru. The Bible speaks of a world dictator that will rule a "one world government" that promises peace, as well as a solution to currency instability, identity security and food and energy shortages. This guy is not going to play by anybody's rules, but his own. We have been warned.

Juanita: The Middle East is one of people's biggest topics of concern. What is the significance of the happenings in this region and how does it pertain to the Bible?

Frank: The Bible warns that Jerusalem would be a heavy burden to the nations. We are witness to this. To most people world wide the solution is to do away, somehow, with Israel as they are to blame for all the hostilities. They are in a no-win situation. They concede land for peace and only manage to get attacked from closer to their own territory. The Bible says that it all began in that region of the world, and it will all conclude there also. The prophet's description is of a terrible war that will bring all the armies of the nations for one final battle, Armageddon. Nuclear exchanges will take place; how long before one madman releases his trump card in desperation? It's only a matter of time, and it's running late! Ultimately the Bible describes these events as necessary to usher in Jesus' return before we wipe ourselves off the planet.
Juanita: What do you think has ultimately caused the downward spiral that seems to be happening globally in these times?

Juanita: All these events, political, environmental and social, are tied in together with man positioning himself as the center of the universe. Global warming and the ecological situation is related to the disregard of responsibility to a higher authority, as in the creator; after all, if we are the result of one Big Bang, so let another bang fix it, or not. Corporate and governmental corruption are the natural result of our own unchecked greed, why not, are we not the center of the universe? And if we are, what difference, if it feels good...just do it. When everything became relative, our own destruction became inevitable.

Juanita: What is your understanding of the Apocalypse?

Frank: This is just the picture of the future events that the prophet, John was given to keep the church aware and out of the dark, as God's ultimate plan of redemption is played out.

Juanita: What are some of the distressing events soon to occur that will greatly change our way of life?

Frank: Jesus himself described a time that the distressing factors would be like "birth pains". The implication here is that events of a troubling nature would grow in intensity as well as frequency. If we look at earthquakes, tsunamis, heat waves, crop failures, terrorist attacks and any other troubling event, we find that they are increasing in frequency and intensity. If we look at the situation with oil, most experts agree that the best is behind us, with all sorts of implications for a society that lives by and thru oil. Any isolated event like Katrina in New Orleans has great repercussions throughout. A combination of a few of these events, and our lives would be turned upside down, with little hope of recovery. A society without hope is a desperate society.

Juanita: What can we expect for our future? What advice can you give to those concerned about the state of the world today?

Frank: I think that once people begin to see where we are in regards to the times we are living, things can begin to change in our lives. Putting priorities in order is the first necessity in preparedness, and being prepared is our best hope of weathering the storm that is at the door. Many need to examine their spending habits, others draw closer to family. Ultimately, recognizing our dependence on Jesus Christ is the only safe harbor. I chose to believe the Bible, it hasn't been wrong yet.

Juanita: Your message has significant basis through the prophetic words in the Bible. Do you feel that one has to be a devoutly religious, surrendering to Jesus, to make it though these troubling times, or will others with diverse religious backgrounds also be safe?

Frank: Juanita, people who embrace the Bible as the true word of God, will cite Jesus' words that teach that "none come to the father, except by Him". Being in Jesus is the ultimate assurance of security for whatever life throws at you, disease, economic hardships, or the events to come. These trying times are God's way of calling our attention back to Him. The "great tribulation" is going to be particularly difficult for the Jews, who are a 'chosen' people. I believe that all will render an account in accordance to what they know. God gave man a conscience to guide him, and that conscience points to what is right and wrong above the religious rhetoric of different beliefs. A believer in Islam, who blows up innocent civilians, in an attempt to impose his cause, will have a hard time reconciling his conscience with his acts.

Juanita: Frank, you mentioned earlier that though your book presents difficult times ahead, it also presents hope for a new world, without war, hunger and the suffering we are involved in. What hope do you think we have in really turning things around at this point?

Frank: When I look at the events in the Middle East, the escalation of war and all the destruction that results, it is hard to be optimistic in of our own accord. The Lebanese youth are enraged at what they perceive as unjustified aggression. The Israelis, likewise. As the destruction adds up, the opportunities for reconciliation, the hope of living a 'happy, normal life', diminish with each missile. Desperation set in and you have a fresh pool of youth willing to blow themselves up, trading in a hopeless reality for the delusion of countless virgins in another existence. I do think that every effort should be put forth to address these problems- we should be seeking a resolution to political tension, we should be adopting children in Africa to stop the hunger, we should become aware of our environment and protect it in any way we can. We can make a huge difference in individual lives. As to turning things around, I don't think so. It's impossible to turn around a "Titanic", when impact is minutes away. But in the end, we have the certainty of a renewed earth, the unwavering promise by the same creator that fashioned this earth in the first place.

Juanita: What is the ultimate message you are conveying to readers through your book "Multitudes at the Crossroads"?

Frank: Look around you, do not be deceived. Things are not as rosy as some would want you to believe. Do the research, get your own answers. See what the Bible says, examine the prophetic record. Be prepared.

Juanita: Why do you feel so passionately about getting the message of your book out there?

Frank: I feel very passionate about this message because time is running fast. I see my own children, my students and friends, living like there is no tomorrow. There is much one need to do to prepare for a storm. Ignoring it will not make it go away.

Juanita: Who should read your book?

Frank: All those that are concerned with what they see in CNN. Those that have taken leave of their relation with God. Those that are seeking answers. On the cover it also addresses "the would be critic" because I run into many intelligent and educated people that have absolutely no knowledge of the Bible and discard it without as much as a thought. I think we need to continue to seek answers because the more we know, the more educated our choices. We all need a wake up call about now.

Juanita: Frank, how can readers find out more about you and your book "Multitudes at the Crossroads?"

Frank: Visit http://www.trafford.com/05-2503 . There you will be able to read excerpts from different chapters. They are the publishers, so the book will go out to you faster. Or you can buy the book from Amazon online on special order (it will take a little longer to get to you). If you would like to write to me, do so at fjcol@coqui.net.

Juanita: Thanks so much for talking with us today Frank. You have given us much to think about as we continue on in our daily lives. Do you have any last thoughts for your readers?

Frank: Education is expensive. Ignorance is so much more so. If you hide your head in the sand, you will miss the grandest of all times, the one just ushering in.

Business Confidence on the Rise

Despite failing economic growth and predictions for lower than average GDP growth in New Zealand, a recent report released by business consultant Grant Thornton illustrated that over two thirds of businesses are optimistic about the future outlook for their performance in 2010. The global survey interviewed more than 7,400 businesses across 36 economies for its annual International Business Report. The results are staggering compared to the same time last year where only 15% of those surveyed in New Zealand were optimistic about the outlook for 2009, compared with 66% for the upcoming year, resulting in New Zealand being rated the seventh most optimistic nation in the world. The turn of confidence is believed to be in part due to many New Zealand businesses, and their owners, scrutinising and streamlining their operations, becoming more cost efficient and effective.

With commerce confidence growing exponentially and key economic indicators showing signs that the worst of the recession is now past, there has never been a better time to peruse the market for a new business venture. Questions must be asked as to whether to start a business from scratch or to purchase an established business. With the high rate of failure of new business ventures, purchasing an established business can be a more secure and profitable method to take. Investing in a proven commerce model or an existing business with an established customer base, cash flow, suppliers and systemised operations can reduce the risks of the new venture, while securing instant income.

The question of where to identify potential opportunities in the market is best answered through the services of an experienced business broker, employed by a reputable real estate company. Business brokers are happy to meet and discuss your specific needs and requirements, assisting you in the process of matching your skills and experience with a trade that will compliment the knowledge base you possess. An excellent place to start is to peruse the website of the company that the business broker is employed by, identifying the various types, locations and price ranges of businesses available for sale in New Zealand. If there is nothing suitable to be found, your business broker will be able to network through their contacts in the industry and source a venture as per your requirements.

When deciding to purchase a business for sale in New Zealand, ensure that you assess the skills and strengths that you bring to the operation, and whether they correlate with the required skills for the successful operation of the business. Determine how much you are willing to risk, the budgetary limits you have, the hours you will work and the potential impacts on your lifestyle, market conditions and future outlook. Ensure that much care is taken with the due diligence process of researching the industry, its background and performance. Business brokers will be able to assist you with this process.

Alternative Tourism Strategies In The Sultanate Of Oman

The Sultanate of Oman is a country rich in Heritage and culture with a vast array of tourism attractions and natural beauty; making for a true Arabian experience. Yet, when holiday makers hear or think about Oman, the thoughts are often associated with a wealthy Oil rich country and not that of a holiday destination. This is where the need for a radical boost in Omani tourism stems from.

The Ministry of National Economy conducted a survey for both inbound and outbound tourism in 2001 and 2002. The results showed that in 2002, Oman received just over 1.1 million arrivals, of which only 35% were holiday markers. In the governments economic summary in 2003 'vision for Oman's Economy; Oman 2020' it was noted that Oil currently provided 40% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), however by 2020 it is expected that it will fall to 20%, as Oman is not as rich in Oil as its neighboring gulf countries. The government is therefore seeking alternative sectors for economic growth and Tourism has been selected as one of the sectors.

At 1.7% of GDP the tourism industry has a lot of development to do, if it is to compensate for a lack of Oil in the Economy. Prior to the 1970's Oman was a closed and isolated economy, therefore new policies are encouraged to educate the world on its tourism gems. As a way forward, the government established the Tourism Ministry in 2004, to help address these issues.

Oman boasts a diverse range of well known tourist attractions such as archaeology, modern history, culture, traditional souks (Arabian markets) and architecture. The architecture in Oman ranges from forts to castles built by the Portuguese who colonised Oman for over a century until 1650. It seems evident that tourists are not aware of the other gems Oman has to offer, such as scuba diving and ecotourism.

I sought to speak to tourists at one of the grandest and first six-star hotels in Oman the Shangri-La Resort & spa. An English family stated the reason for their trip was they felt Dubai (their former holiday destination) had become too commercialised and crowded; Oman offered them a more relaxing holiday experience, with its vast beaches and hospitable natives. This is a unique selling point for Oman as the Tourism Ministry is focusing on quality rather than quantity of tourists, therefore attracting those that wish to relax in beautiful surroundings whilst respecting local customs. Oman also has an advantage over other gulf countries, with its comparatively temperate climate.

On the other hand, a family with differing interests were from Germany, as it happens they arrived in Oman on the spur of the moment and were not in fact aware of all the country had to offer. I then proceeded to tell them about one of Oman's little Gems, watching the Turtles nesting in the Wilayat of Sur; they were intrigued and keen to make a trip there. As these tourists would pay for sightseeing and ecotourism trips in addition to staying at hotels, they are therefore the market segment Oman should focus on; those that wish to experience the vast richness of the natural surroundings of Oman.

According to the inbound Tourism survey , 2002, some general figures on the average expenditure of tourists in Oman are as follows: The average tourist in Oman spends 83 Omani Riyals (OMR) equivalent to $215 USD. Europeans spend 147 OMR, Asians 81 OMR, Gulf cooperative countries 59 OMR, other Arab nations 78 OMR and the remaining tourists spend 152 OMR (equivalent to $380, $209, $152, and $201 USD respectively). It is hoped, that by diversifying the tourism attractions, Oman will encourage more tourists with a higher disposable income; yielding a higher average expenditure.

With the expansion of new hotels and developments in Oman like the Wave, the country will be able to accommodate for an increase in tourists and thus the demand for accommodation, spa's, golf courses and restaurants. The Wave is one of the largest developments in Muscat costing $900 million USD and is scheduled to open in 2008. It will be an extremely luxurious residential and tourist area, comprising of a golf course with 505 luxury villas located around it and around the beach, luxury condominiums, apartments and luxury hotels. It will also include a marina with a Yacht Club and moorings for 250 boats, a marina village with retail outlets, restaurants and an international market.

Although the wave is the biggest development in Oman, there are several other similar ones and no doubt many more to be developed in the future; thus accommodating for both expatriates and tourists.

Accommodating tourists in not an issue, however, keeping them entertained and gaining new holiday makers that would not have considered Oman, remains an issue. It seems the majority of tourists in Oman come to enjoy the relaxation aspect of the country, but if there was more of a focus on additional activities or even adventure activities, there could be a greater influx of tourism in the country.

The Tourism Ministry has sought new strategies to promote tourism by focusing on the ecotourism and adventure tourism sectors. By focusing on the potential for adventure tourism such as rock climbing, bouldering, diving, camping and also on ecotourism, we find Oman provides the perfect setting for those seeking adventure.

Rock climbing and bouldering Tourists coming from Europe will benefit from the warm climate for a climbing destination. With more than 160 climbs for all levels and with many unclimbed mountain limestone; it is the ultimate climbing experience.

Rock climbers can climb throughout Oman with its mountainous geography; more specifically they can take to the Musandam peninsula or Wadi Dhum in Nizwa (a few kilometers from Jebel Misht) which is both the highest cliff in Arabia and an established rock climbing arena. It is both an exciting and intriguing experience as the most remote Musadami settlements are accessible only by sea. The Musadami region with its sheltered fjords is a fantastic canoeing destination; it is also a fantastic diving destination. Alternatively, for those seeking diving destinations closer to Muscat, the majority of hotel resorts offer scuba diving. For those that require lessons the dive centre with its private secluded beach, runs PADI courses and also have several trips a day to the most beautiful diving spots. Alongside the specialised activities, tourists can enjoy water sports such as Jet skiing at most hotels.

Ecotourism is prevalent and protected in Oman; Oman is cited by the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) as a country with one of the best records in environmental conservation. Bird watchers will love Al Wusta with more than 130 species of bird; an estimated 372 species of bird nest or migrate through Oman.

Tourists that are looking for a new experience can make the trip to the Ra's Al Hadd peninsula, located in the Wilayat of Sur in the Sharqiya region. Oman is a nesting area for green turtles in the Indian Ocean and in Sur you will be able to witness the protected Green turtle as it lays its eggs, or if you're lucky you will see some hatchlings. Sur is the migration destination for 6000-13000 turtles that make their annual journey, from the East African Coast, the Red Sea to the Arabian Gulf. Additionally, Oman has a number of exotic and rare animals such as the Arabian oryx, the Arabian wolf, the gazelle, the leopard, the caracal lynx, taher and the striped hyena.

With the new strategies from the Tourism Ministry supported by the government, Oman should be well on its way to an increase, even doubling Tourism by 2010; resulting in an increase in employment opportunities in Oman by creating new jobs from construction to catering. The Omani infrastructure will be able to support the tourists and Oman's sense of identity will not be harmed by the government's approach of quality rather than quantity. By creating a unique mix of a tourism product for those seeking culture and adventure, Omani tourists will benefit from a truly Arabian experience.

Basics of Welfare Economics

Human beings are the building blocks of society. The societies agglomerate to make states. And then the nations are formed. The economy of a nation is the indicator of its prosperity. What the economy affects primarily are the people of a country. The technique, which uses the concepts of macroeconomics to achieve social goals, has been christened as welfare economics. Economics with all the data, tables, graph etc. can seem to be a very strict and rigid field. But the economists have now attached the human touch to the economic sphere too. Broadly speaking this field essentially involves the distribution of wealth among all the people and hence providing them with the buying capacity.

The need for this approach to study economics arises because of the increasing index of poverty. The people normally do not pay heed to the poor and the needy. There are increasing numbers of people involved in minimum wage jobs. They are employed but yet poor. The wage jobs do not cover the medical insurance or education for the kids. Now in this situation the person prefers to fulfill the need of a square meal then to go for the education option.

In a democratic set up it is seen that the welfare takes a high position in the agenda of the governments. This is, for one, required to ensure the votes. And secondly democracy has an influence of socialism and communism in it, thus the psyche of the government is for the benefit of the masses. America is known for being one such democracy. There are enough people to work for such causes.

The gamut of social welfare is very wide and anything can be brought under it. In one way it is provision of safety to the country's citizens. Safety from poverty, hunger, disease and many other things a social worker can think of. Now a very thought-worthy question arose when Ralph Nadar brought forward the concept of corporate welfare to the forefront, in 1956. This involves giving tax holidays and other regulatory leverages to the corporations. The debatable issue is that the corporate firms in a capitalist structure cannot be expected to work for the social welfare. And at every step the interests of society and the corporate seem to clash. The design of the corporate structure of the country should be such that it can cater to the needs of themselves as well as those of the society. Corporate governance jurisprudence is probably stemmed out of such conflicts.

The core issue of this problem is probably the distribution of income. The dichotomy on this count arises when one school of thought suggests the governmental influence on income slabs and the other theorizes that government should not at all be involved but it should be the sole discretion of the employer to pay the employees. The actual game lies somewhere in the middle. The governmental regulations do influence the wage schemes. The need of the hour is however, to check the accumulation majority of the wealth among a few hands.

The economic reforms to boost the grass root level employees too have to be brought because it is they who really are at the hem of the economic growth. The new approach is good from the point of view of the low-income people but a balance has to be struck between their interests and the interests of business giants.

Vision India - 2025 (Expectations of an Ordinary Person)

Introduction

The way one lyrist has written, "Hum logo ko samajh sako to samjho dilbar jaani; jitna bhi tum samjhoge utni hogi hayerani"...in a nut-shell we Indian's are most "unpredictable". When the expectations are low...we have performed really well and contrary to that when expectations were very high...most of the time we have failed to live up to those expectations.

As we are going to complete 58 yrs of independence on 15th August 2005, it is a pleasure to share with you the facts about India, Vision India 2025 (From Ordinary person's point of View), and India in 21st Century.

From Independence...till now

India was a British colony. It earned its independence from the British on 15th August 1947. Day before that Pakistan which was created as a result of partition of British India was established and flanked on two sides of India: West Pakistan which is called today Pakistan, and east Pakistan, now an independent state called Bangladesh. After its independence, the political leaders of India adopted the liberal democratic system for the country.

Since its independence, India has transformed a lot. When India attained independence in 1947, its population was around 400 million people. Now there are billion people in India. India is the largest democracy in the world. It has the biggest number of people with franchise rights and the largest number of Political Parties, which take part in election campaign.

Before its independence, India was never a single country but a bunch of different entities. Many predicted that India, because of diversities in its cultures, religion, languages, castes, manners, local histories, nationalities and identities, would not survive as a single democratic country, but would break up into smaller countries.

Since independence, India had many political problems. During independence the most burning issues were the riots between the Hindus and Muslims while the Sikhs were siding with Hindus. Another issue was convincing the Princely states not to declare independence or join Pakistan but to join the Indian Union. India also had a few wars with its neighbors on border issues.

India also has many internal problems. Different communities with different identities - regional, language, caste, religion - demanded different rights for their communities. Some communities demanded more autonomy for their cultures within the Indian states. Others demanded autonomous states within the Indian Union, while the others demanded to be independent from India.

With all its problems India survives as a single state with democratic character.

How much do you know about India? (India - Fact File)

Location: Southern Asia, bordering the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, between Burma and Pakistan

Population: 1,080,264,388 (July 2005 est.)

Population Growth Rate: 1.4% (2005 est.)

Life expectancy: 64.35 years

Sex ratio: 1.06 male(s)/female (2005 est.)

Composition of Religion: Hindu 80.5%, Muslim 13.4%, Christian 2.3%, Sikh 1.9%, other 1.8%, unspecified 0.1% (2001 census)

Languages: English enjoys associate status but is the most important language for national, political, and commercial communication; Hindi is the national language and primary tongue of 30% of the people; there are 14 other official languages: Bengali, Telugu, Marathi, Tamil, Urdu, Gujarati, Malayalam, Kannada, Oriya, Punjabi, Assamese, Kashmiri, Sindhi, and Sanskrit; Hindustani is a popular variant of Hindi/Urdu spoken widely throughout northern India but is not an official language

Administrative Break-up: 28 states and 7 union territories

Executive Heads: President A.P.J. Abdul KALAM (since 26 July 2002); Vice President Bhairon Singh SHEKHAWAT (since 19 August 2002)
Head of government: Prime Minister Manmohan SINGH (since May 2004)

Economic Overview: India's diverse economy encompasses traditional village farming, modern agriculture, handicrafts, a wide range of modern industries, and a multitude of services. Services are the major source of economic growth, though two-thirds of the workforce is in agriculture. The UPA government has committed to furthering economic reforms and developing basic infrastructure to improve the lives of the rural poor and boost economic performance. Government controls on foreign trade and investment have been reduced in some areas, but high tariffs (averaging 20% in 2004) and limits on foreign direct investment are still in place. The government has indicated it will do more to liberalize investment in civil aviation, telecom, and insurance sectors in the near term. Privatization of government-owned industries has proceeded slowly, and continues to generate political debate; continued social, political, and economic rigidities hold back needed initiatives. The economy has posted an excellent average growth rate of 6.8% since 1994, reducing poverty by about 10 percentage points. India is capitalizing on its large numbers of well-educated people skilled in the English language to become a major exporter of software services and software workers. Despite strong growth, the World Bank and others worry about the combined state and federal budget deficit, running at approximately 9% of GDP. The huge and growing population is the fundamental social, economic, and environmental problem. In late December 2004, a major tsunami took at least 60,000 lives in India, caused massive destruction of property, and severely affected the fishing fleet.

GDP: purchasing power parity - $3.319 trillion (2004 est.)

Important Years for India, since independence

1947: India gains independence at the stroke of midnight on Aug. 15. Hours before, Pakistan is born. As many as 6 million people cross the communal border in a two-way exodus. Rampages among Hindus, Muslims and Sikhs claim a million lives.

1948: Spiritual leader Mohandas "Mahatma" Gandhi is shot dead Jan. 30 by a Hindu extremist. An advocate of non-violent political action, Gandhi had campaigned against British rule and sectarian violence for two decades.

The fighting stops in Kashmir; the disputed territory belongs to India.

1951: India's first Five-Year Plan is initiated.

1961: Indian troops move in to liberate Goa from the Portuguese.

1962: Indo-Chinese hostilities break out on the Tibetan border.

1965: Political tension rises with Pakistan over Kashmir. India proclaims Hindi the national language.

1967: Drought and major famine strike India, especially the Bihar region.

1971: India goes to war against Pakistan, recognizes the independent state of Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan).
1974: Nuclear tests are performed in the Rajasthan desert.

1975: PM Gandhi is accused of electoral crimes. A state of emergency is declared across the country, restricting political and individual rights.

1977: State of emergency ends. Cyclones plague the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu regions.

1984: Sikhs occupy the Golden Temple compound in Amritsar. On June 6, Indian troops storm the temple. On Dec. 2, a leak at the Union Carbide pesticide factory in Bhopal kills 2,000 and leaves millions affected by chemical poisoning.

1987: Indian peacekeeping troops are sent to Sri Lanka to deal with Tamil insurrectionists.

1990: Singh announces plans to reserve places for the lower castes in the public service. Riots erupt across the country.

Hindu militants attempt construction of a temple on the site of the former Babri Masjid mosque in Uttar Pradesh. A procession to the site leads to thousands of arrests. Clashes between police and Hindu militants occur throughout Northern India.

1992: India's worst financial scandal, involving state-owned commercial banks, leads to a major slump on the Bombay stock market.

Sectarian violence erupts after Hindu extremists level the 16th century Babri mosque at Ayodhya on Dec. 6. The violence is the worst seen since Partition. The government's offer to build a mosque and a Hindu temple at the site fails to appease both sides.

1993: Hundreds are killed when bombs go off in Bombay public buildings. Four days later, a bomb ignites in Calcutta. Pakistan denies complicity.

1995: The World Bank allocates a $980 million loan, its largest ever, to aid Indian bank reforms.

2002: Communal riots in Gujarat, hundred's of people were killed.

Vision India, 2025 (From an Ordinary Person's Point of View)

1) Ensure dignity, Self-Respect and Pride for each individual, irrespective of age, gender, region or religion.

2) Drinking Water, Food, Cloth, Shelter and education for all.

3) World Class infrastructure: roads, airports and railways.

4) Every year there is a loss of billions of rupees due to flood; only solution is "Unification" of all rivers.

5) Only one caste (Brotherhood) and one religion (Humanity), across the length and breadth of the country.

6) No "reservation", no subsidiary, no "special privilege" and no discount, on the basis of Region, Religion, Community, Profession and Community.

7) Minimum education (Graduate), Minimum Administrative Experience (7-10 yrs) and retirement age (67 yrs) for all politicians. Also, annual appraisal system for all ministers.

(These are the few points, I am able to pen down; however I have not mentioned anything about security and foreign policy...because as an ordinary person above mentioned things are of more importance than anything else)

India in 21st Century

Everyone recognizes that the twenty-first century is the Century of Knowledge. Nations, which have mastered the production of knowledge, its dissemination, its conversion into wealth and social good and its protection have assumed a leadership position in the world today. But it must be recognized that knowledge without innovation is of no value. It is through the process of innovation alone that new knowledge can be created. It is innovation, which converts knowledge into wealth and social good.

India was a leader in innovation several centuries ago. In fact, our innovations were diverse and pioneering. They included

1. Remarkable town planning,

2. The use of standardized burnt bricks for dwelling houses

3. Interlinked drainage systems

4. Wheel-turned ceramics and solid-wheeled carts.

5. The dockyard at Lothal in Gujarat is regarded as the largest maritime structure ever built by a bronze-age community.

6. The discovery of zero and the decimal place value system by Indians dates back to the Vedic period.

7. Our pioneering work in algebra, trigonometry and geometry was truly outstanding.

8. Indian innovations in medicine, especially in Ayurveda, not only aimed at the cure of diseases but, more importantly, on the preservation of health.

9. The innovations in surgery included pioneering efforts in laprotomy, lithotomy and plastic surgery.

10. The iron pillar at Delhi, which testifies to the achievements in metallurgy some 1500 years ago, is truly inspirational even today.

Indian civilization was characterized by scientific thought, capabilities and techniques at levels far more advanced than others.

In spite of this great heritage and record of accomplishments, why did India fall behind in the ensuing centuries? When the scientific and industrial revolutions took place in the West a few hundred years ago, there was a period of stagnation in India. The lack of development over this period was a result of a hierarchical approach, irrational subjective thinking, and build up of superstitions and superficial ritualism. We have lost the leadership position. This cannot continue into the twenty-first century. We must regain this position with determined action.

Our confidence in building the new innovative India of our dreams stems from our major successes in the arena of many technological innovations that have made such a difference to the nation. Some prominent examples include
the blue (space), green (agriculture), white (milk) and gray (software) revolutions. Let us just take one example.

1. The Indian space program, for example, has designed and sent into space a series of satellites that, among other things, comprise the largest domestic communication system in the Asia-Pacific region.

2. It has also developed a range of launch vehicles, the most recent being a geo-synchronous launch vehicle with an 1800 kg payload. These developments have helped in the application of space technology for national needs in communication, meteorology, broadcasting, and remote sensing. All of this has been achieved in a relatively cost-effective manner. The Indian space programmer's current annual budget is equivalent to US $450 million while NASA's budget, in comparison, is over $15 billion.

3. Other innovations serving specific Indian needs include C-DOT digital switches, CorDECT cost-effective wireless-local-loop products, the Simputer, which is a low-cost computer and the Param supercomputer.

4. The last is an example of "denial-driven innovation," illustrating that India has the potential to tackle highly advanced technological issues, given the proper motivation.

Conclusion

Yesterday was good since then we have traveled a lot; covered a lot of distance, but still there are miles to go. Building a nation is not easy. We have to "learn from our past and focus on future". The way ahead is not easy...is not a bed of roses. Instead of pulling each other, lets grow together...lets be a "Team India".

On this independence, this is all I have to share...to write.
Have a great day and take care of yourself.

Awaiting your feedback and comments,

Wag the Dog - How to Conceal Massive Economic Collapse

"I'm in show business, why come to me?"

"War is show business, that's why we're here."

- "Wag the Dog" (1997 film)

The first week of August 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had just announced record losses, and so had most reporting corporations. Unemployment was mounting, the foreclosure crisis was deepening, state budgets were in shambles, and massive bailouts were everywhere. Investors had every reason to expect the dollar and the stock market to plummet, and gold and oil to shoot up. Strangely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 300 points, the dollar strengthened, and gold and oil were crushed. What happened?

It hardly took psychic powers to see that the Plunge Protection Team had come to the rescue. Formally known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, the PPT was once concealed and its very existence denied as if it were a matter of strict national security. But the PPT has now come out of the closet. What was once a legally questionable "manipulator" of markets has become a sanctioned stabilizer and protector of markets. The new tone was set in January 2008, when global markets took their worst tumble since September 11, 2001. Senator Hillary Clinton said in a statement reported by the State News Service:

"I think it's imperative that the following step be taken. The President should have already and should do so very quickly, convene the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. That's something that he can ask the Secretary of the Treasury to do. This has to be coordinated across markets with the regulators here and obviously with regulators and central banks around the world."

The mystery over what was going on with the dollar the first week in August was solved by James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, who wrote on August 7:

"[T]he banking problems in the United States continue to mount, while the federal government's deficit continues to soar out of control. So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here's the proof.

"When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.

"On July 16, 2008 the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others."

Just as central banks manipulate currencies in concert, so gold can be manipulated by massive selling of central bank reserves. Oil and any other market can be manipulated as well. But markets can be manipulated by only so much and for only so long without fixing the underlying problem. There is more bad news coming down the pike, news of such magnitude that no amount of ordinary manipulation is liable to conceal it.

For one thing, roughly $400 billion in ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) have or will reset between March and October of this year. Assuming 3 to 6 months for strapped debtors to actually hit the wall with their payments, a huge wave of defaults is about to strike, continuing through March 2009 - just in time for the next huge wave of resets, in option ARMs. Option ARMs are loans with the option to pay even less than just the interest on the loan monthly, increasing the loan balance until the loan reaches a certain amount (typically 110% to 125% of the original loan balance), when it resets. The $800 billion credit line recently opened to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be not only tapped but tapped out, at taxpayer expense. The underlying problem is little discussed but impossible to repair - a one quadrillion dollar derivatives scheme that is now imploding. Banks everywhere are facing massive writeoffs, putting the whole banking system on the brink of collapse. Only public bailouts will save it, but they could bankrupt the nation.

What to do? War and threats of war have been used historically to distract the population and deflect public scrutiny from economic calamity. As the scheme was summed up in the trailer to the 1997 movie "Wag the Dog" -

"There's a crisis in the White House, and to save the election, they'd have to fake a war."

Perhaps that explains the sudden breakout of war in the Eurasian country of Georgia on August 8, just 3 months before the November elections. August 8 was the day the Olympic Games began in Beijing, a distraction that may have been timed to keep China from intervening on Russia's behalf. The mainstream media version of events is that Russia, the bully on the block, invaded its tiny neighbor Georgia; but not all commentators agree. Mikhail Gorbachev, writing in The Washington Post on August 12, observed:

"What happened on the night of Aug. 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against 'small, defenseless Georgia' is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity. The Georgian leadership could do this only with the perceived support and encouragement of a much more powerful force."

Bruce Gagnon, coordinator of the Global Network against Weapons and Nuclear Power, commented in OpEdNews on August 11:

"The U.S. has long been involved in supporting 'freedom movements' throughout this region that have been attempting to replace Russian influence with U.S. corporate control. The CIA, National Endowment for Democracy and Freedom House (includes Zbigniew Brzezinski, former CIA director James Woolsey, and Obama foreign policy adviser Anthony Lake) have been key funders and supporters of placing politicians in power throughout Central Asia that would play ball with 'our side'. None of this is about the good guys versus the bad guys. It is power bloc politics. Big money is at stake. [B]oth parties (Republican and Democrat) share a bi-partisan history and agenda of advancing corporate interests in this part of the world. Obama's advisers, just like McCain's (one of his top advisers was recently a lobbyist for the current government in Georgia) are thick in this stew."

Brzezinski, who is now Obama's adviser, was Jimmy Carter's foreign policy adviser in the 1970s. He also served in the 1970s as director of the Trilateral Commission, which he co-founded with David Rockefeller Sr., considered by some to be the "master spider" of the Wall Street banking network. Brzezinski, who wrote a book called The Grand Chessboard, later boasted of drawing Russia into war with Afghanistan in 1979, "giving to the Soviet Union its Vietnam War." Is the Georgia affair an attempted repeat of that coup? Mike Whitney, a popular Internet commentator, observed on August 11:

"Washington's bloody fingerprints are all over the invasion of South Ossetia. Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili would never dream of launching a massive military attack unless he got explicit orders from his bosses at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. After all, Saakashvili owes his entire political career to American power-brokers and US intelligence agencies. If he disobeyed them, he'd be gone in a fortnight. Besides an operation like this takes months of planning and logistical support; especially if it's perfectly timed to coincide with the beginning of the Olympic games. (another petty neocon touch) That means Pentagon planners must have been working hand in hand with Georgian generals for months in advance. Nothing was left to chance."

Part of that careful planning may have been the unprecedented propping up of the dollar and bombing of gold and oil the week before the curtain opened on the scene. Gold and oil had to be pushed down hard to give them room to rise before anyone shouted "hyperinflation!" As we watch the curtain rise on war in Eurasia, it is well to remember that things are not always as they seem. Markets are manipulated and wars are staged by Grand Chessmen behind the scenes.