Thursday, January 7, 2010
Camko city, Phnom Penh, Cambodia (1)
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Stock Exchange and the importance of global economic growth,
Stock markets around the world have experienced substantial growth. Economic recession, the obstacles we face today the role of sadness and growth, which also applies to the stock market sector. Experience in emerging markets, the investment in the stock market has risen sharply.
Better profits are a viable option as the main reason for stock market investors. In developing countries with low rate of return is generally higher. Banking Research and StatisticsSM has also proven to give developing countries a better benefits, so the diversity is of great significance not only is your investment in various industries across the country, but also spread to a variety of different portfolio investment in developing countries.
Show structural reform in developing countries, economic and legal changes, eliminating one or restrictions on capital account liberalization the government, which is a blessing to foreign investors. All major financial centers to improve processesInformation and increase investor laws and regulations, foreign investors only waving in developing countries. Foreign investors think that this is a good opportunity to scoop up some money and help, if at home happy.
While foreign investors samarium prosperity, we must be careful with the economic recession, the economy is really difficult and the international markets will take some time to beat. The growth of economic turmoil and the country, changing the number ofFactors, there will be negative returns, even in developing countries.
The Asian market is seeing a lot of attractiveness to foreign investors. Investors want to profit, while the Latin American and Asian countries are rapidly than gold as soon as possible the impact of samarium. But do not forget that emerging countries outside the capital growth and survival, and offer financial and capital inflows in emerging economies need to benefit from it. But the emerging economies should be takenCare should be noted that the rapid growth of debt, and shall take appropriate measures to the greatest advantage of utilizing foreign investment.
Banks and the stock market go hand in hand in order to provide a stable economy. An encouraging stock markets in developing countries a miracle. This will lead to the growth of capital and promote a barometer to a new level. Whether the banks and the stock market is encouraging capital accumulation and thus help improve the productivity of healthIn all regions.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Britain will enter a recession
Recession is a negative growth economy in the last two quarters. In the post-war period the United Kingdom's economic boom and bust cycles of economic growth. A high inflation and high growth after a period of growth, in the economic recession. However, since 1992, the United Kingdom's economic growth a long time, the longest sustained growth in this century occurred. It seems that the UK has been temporarilyTo avoid the risk of a recession, but despite the forecast is positive, there are many factors that could cause the U.S. economy into recession in the United Kingdom.
Possible reasons for the economic recession might include:
1. Decline in home prices. Britain's economic dependence on the housing market strong. Most people have a home, hire is not common on the European continent. Borrowing costs are 1% of the income is high, because people from a large number of mortgage loans.
If house prices fall, then it's negative balanceEffect, this decline in private consumption and the negative impact of anti-dumping. Some say that house prices are overvalued because of speculation. However, some others believe that the UK market because of supply and the scarcity of consistent high quality. However, the housing market is easy, even a small increase in interest rates. When interest rates will increase borrowing costs, there will be consumer demand and consumption has dropped significantly.
2. In addition, a record highBorrowing by consumers, the U.S. economy may affect interest rates, an increased significantly. Savings rate has reached historic lows. When interest rates rise, then this is the immense suffering caused to consumers.
3. The decline of the manufacturing sector. In a very long time, the competitiveness of British manufacturing industry is still not with the rest of the world. Mainly because of competition from Asian countries, lower labor costs. Sector in the UK more and moreUnemployment, the unemployment rate rose to 5% (ILO Labor Force Survey to go)
4. High government borrowing. Surrounding the loss of government revenue has increased. This will reduce the impact of consumer spending.
5. The global economic downturn. If the world economic slowdown is reduced to reduce exports to the United Kingdom to obtain confidence in the economy needs. It is very important to the globalizing world economy.
6. Some people think that the interest rateAre kept artificially low to buy from China and other Asian countries needs to enter the UK, especially the United States debt. If for some reason, this is the end. Increase in interest rates to try to address current account imbalances and the level of national savings.
7. Rise in oil prices. In the past two years, oil prices once again become the past, this is often enough to trigger a recession increase. This time was different, because the price rise is caused by the high demand forRather than supply-side shocks. However, if the oil price () continue to rise, many analysts predict oil prices will be on with the business cost pressures on inflation. In order to maintain the interest rate monetary policy, the Government's inflation target can be added. Therefore, the decline triggered AD
However, the British economic growth is projected at 3% next year. This is because consumer spending is a violation of low interest rates and low inflation forecast to remain stable. However, when theIs a slight increase in interest rates, growth rate may be too optimistic about (last year). This may be sufficient to reduce consumer and business confidence. Thus began a recession.
The United Kingdom and the United States into recession?
Monday, January 4, 2010
The current housing market collapse, only the first of many crises redemption
As the economy of all the bad news every day, as well as housing prices and foreclosures hit a record number of people continued to fall, it seems, just not how the situation is usually more serious. Unfortunately, the current figures reported to underestimate the number of foreclosures over the previous year before the foreclosure problem, because over the past few months, she walked the streets of the legal system.
This means that a high redemption rate has not yet begun to reflect theWhat is the real estate market, especially now that the only figures, because their mortgages, many property owners, almost half a year ago, on behalf of more delays. Redemption of a period in the post-foreclosure auction, some states, the owner is currently no one to stay for more than a year or two years of economic figures, depending on the courts and the banks are lagging far behind the pursuit of the loss of homeowners in arrears foreclosure proceedings.
All currentThe coming economic collapse, and is likely to be designated as a country or a people's healthy growth of the measures "the word" end. Even now, because it is increasingly difficult from a problem or other, banks, investment companies and governments to work together to maintain the illusion of steady growth. However, to date is still an illusion, corruption and fraud, and manipulation of numbers left to cook the books.
Various kinds of trickshave been used for years to create an illusion of economic growth, when the reality of the situation is simply that more people are working longer hours for more of their lives and never getting ahead. Elderly couples who receive too little from Social Security and retirement accounts to pay their bills have to work, which means economic growth. People who eat out everyday contribute more to economic growth than families who make their own meals. Computers get faster, so In dealing with numbers higher than the economic growth, although the difference may be negligible. This illusion of progress at the expense of personal satisfaction is the growth in almost all the official account.
Both sides benefit from the sub-prime and the two presidential candidates who have already obtained to connect to the company, many of the victims of poverty and homelessness mortgages. No matter who won theThe White House, this corruption of unlimited economic growth is less than the expected long-term advocacy roots still firmly in the public. With economic development, the same is true of the legal provisions and control, often limit the personal freedom to be rewarded and political corruption-related lobby groups.
Is due to the country into a deep recession than in the past several decades of experience in June 2008 for the most serious in JuneSince 1930, the stock market, the owners may be looking for their families and foreclosures in the donor community. Even if the local banks can remain open to avoid casualties, major money center bank's financial operations, micro-credit borrowers in the coming years it is available. Local solutions will retain a number of groups, good health, while the sub-prime mortgage crisis is not too fat to reach ghost towns across the country.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
World Economic Forum in Davos, Erdogan, Shimon Peres 2009 - Davos
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Download your guide to Forex Fundamental Analysis
Understood that the primer-driven foreign exchange transactions
Good traders know that their basic rights
"It's like a doctor asked him if he or charts of patients with the diagnosis and treatment monitoring of the conditions it likes. You need two."
- Bruce Kovner, the world's largest and most experienced one of the currency speculators.
Explain the four basic economic indicators
First growth
An indicator"The country's GDP growth. A growth in gross domestic product, due to strong economic growth will contribute to the amount of major currencies, the currency strength of the desire of investors. You should note that there is a high-inflation increase in also led to gross domestic product, which will lead to currency depreciation.
2. Interest
Healthy economic growth is the increase in speculative activities. Government began to raise interest rates toTo curb excessive speculation.
Interest rates will increase the currency traders rushed's leading currency, the value of the bid. This is because they always strive to achieve their own money for the high rate of return.
The only exception is if the Fed to improve as a political response to rapid growth in interest rates, but as a means to curb inflation. This led to a weak currency.
A high level of interest in one currencyDoes not guarantee understanding, if it is because of the high inflation, rather than the strong economic growth.
3. Trade
The balance of trade in goods and services flow between the two countries. A trade surplus of more than imports than exports. A trade deficit means more exports than imports'. The trade balance of goods and services only.
A trade surplus means that the currency will appreciate, in other countriesBid to acquire its goods and services. Trade deficit, currency devaluation, because they sell in other parts of the world currencies, commodities and services purchased.
4. Political stability
The foreign exchange market does not like it, because of political instability caused great uncertainty on future economic growth. With the strong economic growth of countries often see their currencies decline, if there is a more important, political unrest and other political flavorScandal or corruption within the Government.
3 theory, in the long run the impact of foreign exchange market
In our discussion of the theory, I would like to emphasize is that these theories will affect the foreign exchange market to a certain extent, but these theories have their limitations. Theory is the so-called theory because some of the key assumptions may not be the true situation.
The foreign exchange market only in those theories is not recommended. AndThese strategies are based on the impact of long-term direction of the currency. The impact of these factors, the direction of the currency during the period of 5 to 20 years.
Is important that investors understand the underlying drivers in the long run, even though it may not have the necessary currency in order to reflect today's conditions.
What is the balance of payments theory
The balance of payments include: two current and capital accountsAccounts;
The current account measures trade in material and finished products. Surplus or deficit between exports and imports as the trade balance. A trade surplus of more than imports than exports. Trade deficit, exports not only to import more.
Capital account measures the flow of funds, such as stocks or bonds.
Note: The description of the transfer of assets, but considers that this model, with operating funds and outflows帐户.
Balance of payments theory
Imports more than exports, have more money than the inflow of runoff, they say, there is trade deficit. Although different countries, more than imports, exports more money than the flow of run-off experience, they say, there is trade surplus.
Theory suggests that the balance of payments, the trade deficit countries to devalue their currencies, as the country's currency to sell more of market experienceImported from abroad. Selling pressure caused by the devaluation of national currency against other currencies.
Similarly, the country's trade surplus with ASEAN countries with appreciating currencies will appear. This is because more goods are sold abroad, with foreign currency to buy goods to buy. The sale of other foreign pressure to appreciate the national currency.
In general expected, the country's experience, positive or negative贸易. Is important that countries should strike a balance, so that the trade deficit can not continue for a long time to achieve, so it is not conducive to the country's economy. This policy should be implemented to return to surplus in trade deficit to come back the next calendar year.
Limit
International balance of payments model focuses on trade in goods and a breach of international capital flows. This is established in 1990, is to play an important role in capital flowsAffecting the country's exchange rate.
Thus, a country can have trade deficit, but because he was so large capital flows, such as more money in the total flow. The model is not considered capital, more money, since this year, obviously.
Monetary Model
This model is, the exchange rate is the monetary policy decisions by the state.
Restrictive monetary policy means that the central bank will sell its assets to the nationInvestments and loans in the open market to the public. Therefore, these actions will help to reduce the money supply, currency appreciation into a country.
While monetary policy, central bank cut, it will mean that the central bank's stocks and bonds back to the public on the open market to buy. As a result, which will enhance the country's money supply, leading to currency depreciation.
There are several factors that affect the rate:
1. The state's moneySupply
2. Expect that the future level of the country's money supply
3. Money growth rate of a nation
Limit
This model is more effective in preventing currency appreciation to vigorously promote a country's currency devaluation. Few economists only in this model, because they do not take into account the trade and capital flows.
Theory of the real interest rate differential
Interest Rate TheoryCountries have high interest rates, to see their currencies appreciate, while the low interest rates, countries should see their currencies would fall.
Basic Mode
If a country will raise interest rates, you will find the money income in these countries more attractive, the international investors turned their money. This process means that investors who buy the currency levelUse their own money, where high yields. Therefore, the country's currency will appreciate.
If lower interest rates, a better international investors to put their money so that they can get better returns. This will lead investors to sell the currency, so that they can move it overseas. Because of this strong pressure to sell the national currency of the results will lead to lose its value.
This phenomenon is another long-term investorsAlways looking for a higher rate of return to their money invested in is called carry trades.
Limit
The main disadvantage of this model is that it not take into account a country's current account, which is held on capital flows. Such as political stability, inflation and economic growth factors, not considered. Therefore, this model can not be all the time.
Free will in this on your web site or the use of electronic journal articlesAs long as the author of the following information / websites included.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Economic growth and poverty reduction - the poor growth of the work,
1. Introduction
As to whether it will lead to economic growth, poverty reduction is a very controversial issue. Neo-liberal view, this issue is the poor growth is good, and through economic growth to alleviate poverty. In this article, I believe that if the poor to the importance of participation in the economic and constraints, thus hindering their labor force participation, growth will not only help to reduce poverty. NationalShould also play a pro-poor growth, through pro-poor policies has an important role. In the following paragraphs, I will determine what is pro-poor growth, to clarify the restrictions, pro-poor growth, what can be done to ensure that growth is pro-poor.
2. Definition: pro-poor growth
After Ravillion and Sadat (1991:19), pro-poor economic growth can be defined as "growth, and includes pro-poor." In other words, the need for pro-poor growth in theMaximum participation in all areas of marginalized groups. Ravallion and Dutt that further pro-poor growth, characterized by, among other things, what they call "extreme poverty, who is in an invincible position is not a deliberate move out of poverty. Essentially, it has made progress parameter is The poor need help or intervention, so this means that to benefit from growth. This is pro-poor economic growth is a deliberate measure, pro-poor economic growth, not toTo give up when the poor, the "invisible hand of the market's fate. This is a favorable environment for the definition of things, where the poor have the opportunity to participate in economic significance.
Took place in Kydd et al (2001:10) pro-growth, in the following conditions:
price or trading products to enhance productivity high, and the poor, the average share of consumption.
trading price and increase productivityProducts and poor, high labor input.
changes in technology or reduce barriers to market entry, it will not lead to the poor in the production of non-traded goods that they previously did not participate in or
or in a large number of non-poor, the production of goods or services, the request to extend the poor as a connection, and then disposing of or the result.
It is important to note that not all of the growth pro-poor. Here are someCharacteristics and aspects of growth tilt to the poor is not:
Differences in the distribution of wealth
an increase in poverty in the rural areas
growth, agricultural development, even though his role in the fight against poverty ignored
lack of health care and education, in their fight against poverty to play a key role in the investment
do not reduce inequality and lack of procedures on the needs of the poor(Www.seurities.com).
As Acocella (1998:162) pointed out, it is important to remember that growth does not necessarily produce such a fact: human development. Growth may occur in a significant impact on human development, especially the poor view. Acocella also claims that the real development or growth occurred in improving the welfare of the people. Growth will not lead to improvement of the people who can not say that the development of the nature of benefits. Real growth, such as iron --Et al (2002:4) note, the people, meaning "to contribute to poverty alleviation and development leader in the benefits from this growth. Obviously, there is pro-poor growth is not automatic, failed to implement appropriate measures to help promote their the embodiment of experience. The current policies and practices may impede pro-poor growth, rather than through. I investigated some of the next section.
3. Restrictions on pro-poor growth
ForPro-poor growth has taken place in any society, it is important to ensure that all of the obstacles impeding the achievement of its objectives the poor. Failure or reluctance to go with these obstacles can prevent the poor progress and obstacles, the ultimate strategy to combat poverty and poverty success. The following are constraints may have a negative impact of pro-poor growth in part:
3.1 inequality and lack of access to markets
It is difficult toThe inequality in the pursuit of the characteristics of the poor by the state preferential policies in favor. Stewart that (1995:209), which is difficult to develop a conducive pro-poor policies in the unequal society. He gives an unequal society, such as Ghana, Mexico and the Philippines example, in his view, economic growth has not made any impact on the poor. These companies started with Indonesia, "there is an equal structure, and pro-, rather than pro-poor growth pattern. Other examples are purely the EastAsian companies, this is due to dramatically reduce transaction with the inequality of poverty level of effective strategies. This means that exists between the relationship between poverty and inequality. May (2002:2) also shows that the policy pursued by the apartheid government in South Africa to reduce poverty and inequality is not good, because they are out of the country's economy to participate in some groups. The spread of inequality has led to the loss of these assetsFrom land and livestock, and deprived of an opportunity to capitalize on these advantages in market access, infrastructure and education restrictions.
And the inequality problem is that it leads to social exclusion, in which certain groups have no chance or services. From the importance of participation in the economy, thus affecting their welfare exclusion of the poor. In the economic situation of high inequality, the poor usually receive a higher benefit from the share,Comparison of growth, which is characterized by a highly unequal economy. , As Ravallion and Dutt (1997:7), "inequality of material wealth and human resources are likely to affect the poor the opportunity to participate in economic growth." This policy pro-poor is to ensure that the poor access to markets and infrastructure. Obviously, in cases, there is no equality between the different social economic class,Market forces and Adam Smith's invisible hand of the dependence in order to meet their basic needs only wishful thinking.
3.2 Financial constraints
Governments of developing countries in particular, it is difficult to achieve pro-poor growth strategies and poverty reduction approach to financial constraints. Structural adjustment programs in most cases, make things worse. The reality is that usually associated with challenges in order to reduce government spending, are faced withSocial services, which is supposed to benefit the poor. This means that it took basic services, such as health, education and other basic services with less money. Reduction in public expenditure, while in (Howard) a direct impact on poor 2001:57. However, it is important to point out that countries are trying to solve their attempt to adopt such an anti-poverty struggle in the face of the global challenges of the measures and restrictions, the pursuit of good. This is one on a less "command state global pressures," the role of the acquisitionEconomy.
3.3 reduce the role of the state
Market liberalization and globalization go, is a rollback, among other things, lobbying for the country, for the price and quantity restrictions, the lifting of being moved and stored. As Howard (2001:57) rightly pointed out that "financial liberalization increases poverty and inequality." In the context of globalization, the government was forced to open their markets. However, the crucial question whether theMarket liberalization to benefit the poor. They have different reactions. Some people think that, especially in the opportunities of globalization whose benefit the poor, which has trade and new markets. On the other hand, there are some who think it is harmful.
Shown Vincent (2001:11), globalization 'poverty in some countries, damage to other countries. Although the general requirements of a country to roll back "to theMarket work (if they work it), the state play a role not to do so, especially in the matter, the people themselves. This is especially the poor, who were in employment there is no age, disability, chronic illness or for other reasons can not be based on social exclusion or discrimination can participate. By Frost (1995:253), these people's poverty, can not be deleted, or through the promotion of the market, but deliberately"The pressure of social services and transfer payments and eliminate discrimination. On reducing the role of government in the economy can be pro-poor growth of the negative impact of focus.
Should be pro-poor growth, the state re-allocation of resources and opportunities, through the key role of the transfer of assets, poor public expenditure priorities and management have played a market liberalization, in order to protect the livelihoods of vulnerable人们. The steel reinforcing bars, etc. (2002:19) points out, is "a tool for the government in the development process in person. Therefore, the Government can play the right strategy for handling to play a key role in pro-poor growth in poverty.
4. What can be done to enable the poor to benefit from it?
The following are these things must be done to benefit the poor a few:
there is a need to focus on human capital development, especially the poor to enable them to prepareMeaningful participation in the economy.
The poor need better access to markets, credit, mainly --
there is a opposed to public spending, taxation, trade and regulatory environment, poor bias to be corrected.
5. Conclusion
Pro-poor growth policy is to be effective in reducing poverty. In 2015, income poverty target of halving the population can be achieved, if the State can adopt pro-poor growth strategies. This will be theThe difficulty is not a "pro-goal by 2015, the changes in the distribution pattern to achieve pro-poor" (Mutum 2000). Something needs to be done to improve the situation of the poor, how to make improvements in market access for them easier. It is noteworthy that, even in some cases, the operation of the market, they can not always pro-poor work, given the limitations discussed above.
If these restrictions are not processed or removed, growth will not have a significant impact on lifeThe poor. It is necessary to learn from the mistakes of the past on the relationship between growth and poverty reduction. Sen (1986, cited in Goldman Sachs shows 1991:292) that: "The State in another difficult to say that the so-called trickle-down" is the wrong theoretical study, growth can be poverty of the famine boom also occurred when people claim is not purchase and / or food needs, in order to survive, "production
GivenThe extent of poverty in the world today, when the need for strategies or in poverty reduction has changed the practice of pro-poor growth. This means, among other things, understanding, growth itself is not to eradicate poverty. Ian Goldin, World Bank director, said the importance of the future pro-poor growth: "We want to understand economic growth, if necessary, not sufficient to deal with poverty" (Sunday Times, September 1, 2002:15).
6. References
Acocella, note 1998th economic value basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Iron, man, Rosenbatt, D, and Stern, note 2002nd conditions are conducive to India's poor growth. http://www.arts.cornell.edu/eco/India
Howard, J.2001. To make globalization work for the people. Basic rights of work: overview and perspectives ,122:55-60
Kydd ĵ, Ward, Azerbaijan, Marrison, J and Cadisch Bay, 2001. In the role of pro-poor growth in agriculture.[http://www.wye.ac.uk/Ag]
Levinson. J. 2000. Globalization and poverty. University of Michigan. Ford School of Public Policy, the National Bureau of Economic Research.
May, J. 2000. Growth, development and Philip inequality, D (next) version. Poverty and inequality in South Africa: The challenge. Cape Town and London: Czech Civic Press.
Mu Tong Bay, 2001. Finance: the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank's policy in favor to the poor? http://www.oneword.org/ips2/angoo.
Pieterse, if the 2000thDevelopment theory: deconstruction and reconstruction. London: SAGE Publication.
Rui Wolin, M, and Dart Bay, 1999. If there is pro-poor growth: from India, the country's various experiences of the evidence? [http://netec.mcc.ac.ukl/wopec/data/papers]
Stewart, Lou 1995th adjustment and poverty. London: Routledge
Streeten, PP 1995th thinking development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Group.
Sachs, a 1991st of poverty, progress and development. London:Keegan Paul International and UNESCO.